On the Verge of Confrontation

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Jambulat Tedeev and Eduard Kokoyty. Photo: Liberali

Last week South Ossetia found itself on the verge of civil confrontation. According to the various reports, from 1,000 to 2,000 people assembled themselves outside the Central Electoral Commission. They were supporters of presidential candidate Dzhambulat Tedeyev, the chief coach of the Russian national freestyle wrestling team. Tedeyev is now Kokoyty's main enemy and the opposition's number one presidential candidate.

So many people have never assembled in Tskhinvali since the recognition of South Ossetia's independence from Russia on 26 August, 2008.

Dzhambulat Tedeyev's supporters knew in advance that the Central Electoral Commission would create problems regarding registering Tedeyev as a candidate. Since several months the special law functions in South Ossetia, which as Tskhinvali residents claim, has been especially adopted against Tedeyev. According to the law, only a person residing past ten years in South Ossetia can become a president; and Mr. Tedeyev has spent the past ten years in Russia. He tried to justify himself at the Central Electoral Commission, saying that he "lived in Tskhinvali, travelling to Russia for business".

It is clear that the Central Electoral Commission denied Tedeyev’s registration as candidate. There were many strong men among his supporters trying to occupy the commission building. The situation was defused after the special-purpose police unit shot in the air several times.

The presidential election will be held in South Ossetia on 13th November, 2011. Meantime, the republic is coming closer to a civil confrontation.

People in Tskhinvali are well aware that anything can be expected when it comes to the conflict between the Kokoytys and the Tedeyevs.

When Eduard Dzhabeyevich Kokoyty first ran in the South Ossetian presidential election in 2001, brothers Dzhambulat and Ibragim Tedeyevs were his most loyal friends and supporters.

After Kokoyty became president, former presidents failed to divide spheres of influence and became mortal enemies. Kokoyty evicted the brothers from Tskhinvali and did not allow them to return to their homeland. Ibragim Tedeyev became the main sponsor of Kokoyty's opposition, before he was killed in very strange circumstances in Vladikavkaz in August 2006.

"Dzhambulat swore on his brother's grave that he would pay Kokoyty back. Dzhambulat will keep his word," a member of Tedeyev's party said.

Tedeyev's supporters are now protecting his house in Tskhinvali, otherwise he is definitely going to be arrested.

As for Kokoyty, the incumbent South Ossetian president is completing his second and last presidential term. According to the constitution, he does not have the right to run for a third term. Initially, Kokoyty explored the ground to amend the law, but received a clear sign from Moscow that the Kremlin no longer wanted to see Kokoyty in the post of South Ossetian president for a third time.

Since then, Kokoyty has been searching for other ways to remain in power. The Russian option would have not been favourable in South Ossetia. The problem is that since the republic started receiving financial aid from Russia in 2008, the head of the South Ossetian government as a chief responsible person controlling these financial flows, is directly appointed by Kremlin. Neither Kremlin nor Kokoyty himself would be in favour of appointing Kokoyty to this post.

As for becoming the chairman of parliament, it is to mention that parliament has almost no power in South Ossetia. In spite of that, most likely Kokoyty will be satisfied to get this symbolic post in order to remain in power.

Kokoyty’s real power lies in being the chairman of the ruling party, which now has the largest parliamentary faction and influential representatives in all governmental agencies, including power-wielding ministries. Exactly this party has a sufficient power to have its candidate elected in the presidential elections on November13, 2008.

The official successor of Kokoyty is the Minister of Emergency Affairs, Anatoliy Bibilov; but the situation is complicated while Bibilov enjoys no authority among population. There is a disagreement between the fighters and officials regarding the presidential candidates – a situation which increases tension in the country.

It is still unclear who might be the Kremlin's favourite candidate to see on presidential post. Moscow seems to observe the situation from distance. The same has happened in Abkhazia as well: The Kremlin supported Ankvab only two weeks ahead of the election, when it became clear that his chances of winning were realistic. In the meantime, the Kremlin can act in a much bolder manner in South Ossetia. Unlike Abkhazia, here it is not regarded as a bad tone to support Russia.

The disunited participation of the divided opposition in the elections will further improve the chances of the pro-governmental candidate.

However, we cannot be sure that the winner of the November 13th elections will enjoy a sweet life. Eduard Kokoyty keeps repeating that he is not going anywhere. It is obvious that he is already thinking how to rule the new president. In addition, the Kremlin's influence remains… It is obvious that the future president of South Ossetia must have good manoeuvring skills and iron nerves.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.