On the heels of Abkhazia’s Feb. 12 local elections, evaluating the strength and allegiance of the Abkhaz political opposition remains difficult.
Although little changed as a result of the local elections that determined the composition of regional councils and mayoral positions in major towns, the incremental changes show the signs of a growing opposition movement, local analysts said.
Inal Khashig, editor of the independent Abkhaz newspaper, Chegemskaya Pravda, dismissed the significance of the local elections in an interview with the Caucasian Knot, saying local authorities in the region “actually are and will be appendages of the local administrations” still led by the ruling United Abkhazia party.
But, Akhra Smyr, an Abkhaz political analyst, told Liberali that most of the candidates at the local level are unaffiliated with any party, making it difficult to accurately gauge their allegiances.
Givi Gabnia, the deputy head of the Economic Development Party (ERA) echoed that dynamic, telling Liberali that the party is in close contact with several politicians at the local level that share their policy outlook, which puts more emphasis on development in the health care sector and in the regions as opposed to the tourism sector in the major cities.
“On one hand the opposition has become very strong, but on the other hand they are still incredibly weak,” Smyr said.
The opposition has been very effective in getting attention and spread discontent among the local population Smyr said, particularly in the town of Gudauta, where Russia plans to base several thousand troops, and where incumbent mayor was only one not reelected Feb. 12. But, they still have no unified platform and have been unable to formulate a distinct vision for the future of the breakaway republic.
In 2009, the Forum of National Unity of Abkhazia (FNUA) and the ERA released statements lambasting the de facto Abkhaz government for decisions that ceded too much power and control to Russia, criticizing agreements that allow Russia to manage Abkhazia’s rail and airport systems, patrol its borders and provide two-thirds of the governmental budget.
But, despite their strong statements in 2009, both parties – considered to be the most influential in the Abkhazian opposition -- dispute being labeled as anti-Russian, and both say they are in lockstep with the government over the issue of relations with Georgia.
“What Abkhazia needs most is to create the conditions for it to be truly independent -- independent from Russia, from the West, from everyone,” Raul Khajimba, former de facto Abkhaz prime minister and current head of the FNUA, said in an interview with Liberali.
Both parties are currently tapping into the growing discomfort among the Abkazian public over broad concessions made to Russia since 2008, Smyr said. But, in the end, there are few alternatives to the current government policy.
“Everyone knows where the money is coming from – Russia – and the more of it the better. The opposition can talk all they want about how they would do things differently, but they know that they would have the same set of options in power,” Smyr.
The one option that no one is talking about is reunification with Georgia. Of the several Abkhaz people who spoke with Liberali on the streets of Sokhumi, all said rejoining Georgia was off the table.
“No matter what happens, Abkhazia will never again be a part of Georgia. Maybe someday the Georgians will be able to come back, but right now that would be suicide for us,” said Elena Eshba, a shopkeeper in downtown Sokhumi.
Another issue where the government has shown weakness has been on corruption connected with the hundreds of millions of dollars in aid that Russia has pumped into Abkhazia. One journalist, who until recently had reported from Sokhumi and spoke on condition of anonymity, said that 20-30 percent of the Russian aid money was ending up in the pockets of Abkhazian officials and Russian military officers.
On Jan. 21, leader of the opposition People’s Party, Iakob Lakoba was arrested on charges of libel for publishing an article on his party’s website accusing Sergei Stepashin, the head of Russia’s state audit chamber, of corruption and ignoring missing funds from aid packages to Abkhazia. Stepashin’s wife, Tamara, is currently the senior vice president of the Russian VTB bank, through which all aid money to the Abkhazian government is transferred.
Immediately after his arrest, Abkhaz opposition leaders denounced the government’s actions leading to public outcries for his release. Lakoba was released within 24 hours and the charges against him were dropped Feb. 18.
Smyr said that the Lakoba case was a huge victory for the Abkhazian opposition – one that showed that opposition leaders could not only speak openly about corruption, but that government would bend to political and public pressure on the issue.
Today, however, de facto Abkhazian government remains a stolidly one-party state, and, even much of the opposition continues to be led by familiar faces in Abkhazian politics. Khajimba, for instance, is an ex-KGB official and was openly supported by the Kremlin in the 2004 elections against current de facto President Sergei Bagapsh. After a contested election result, they eventually were elected together with Bagash taking the role of president and Khajimba as vice president. He later resigned in May 2009 to create the FNUA.
Nevertheless, Smyr said he sees potential in the future as a new generation of politicians is beginning to emerge who are likely to break with the old guard in both the ruling party and the opposition, and make an impact on Abkhazia’s politics.
The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.
The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.