Absolutely deadlocked

Image removed.Photo: Ria Novosti/Reuters

President Sergey Bagapsh may find himself facing a most complicated test in his political career. The dramatic events that accompanied Bagapsh's coming to power in 2004 seem insignificant compared with it.

Everything depends on how the process of the demarcation of the Russian-Abkhaz border ends. Negotiations on this issue are currently proceeding in a closed mode. The sides are refraining from making any comments, but this period is presumably coming to an end.

According to rumours from the corridors, Russia is asking for… or demanding (depending on who likes which choice) from Sukhumi the transfer of 160 square kilometres, i.e. almost the entire northwest of Gagra District.

Why should a country, which has the largest territory in the world, need yet another territorial mine against the background of the aggravation of the dispute over Kuril Islands with Japan?

This question is rhetorical for the Russians, but the loss of such a large part of its territory is tantamount to a disaster for small Abkhazia. You do not need to study public opinion on this issue. There is no doubt that everyone is unequivocally against it. Blood was shed on this land in the immediate past (the 1992-1993 Georgian-Abkhaz war) and no one is going to cede it easily even in favour of Abkhazia's only real partner.

Moscow realizes full well how unpopular talk about territorial concessions is among the Abkhaz. In spite of that, it has put this proposal forward, probably hoping that the Abkhaz government will approach it with understanding. Sukhumi is a lot more pliable, complaisant, and, what is most important, thankful than those, whom the government is supposed to represent - the Abkhaz people. The Kremlin is also aware of this. Therefore, levelling territorial claims to Sukhumi, Russia hopes to receive if not the whole of the 160 square kilometres, at least half of it. Russia has more than sufficient arguments to achieve territorial concessions and the reminder that it recognized Abkhazia's independence is not the most important among them.

The main lever for exerting pressure on Sukhumi is money. Although the financial rain that has been pouring on Abkhazia over the past two years failed to get the Abkhaz economy to its feet, the local bureaucracy became embarrassingly rich.

Moscow is observing with enviable calm how the money of Russian taxpayers is going into Abkhaz officials' pockets. The head of the Russian Audit Chamber described the disappearance of 347 million roubles from Russian aid as "inflation", not theft. All this should not be regarded as Moscow's nobility or, even less so, its weakness. It is not in the Kremlin's traditions to pay attention to insignificant details. Moreover, Russian aid was embezzled with Moscow's silent consent. This was a premeditated and calculated step by Moscow and it can be dubbed "investment in Abkhaz officials".

It must be said that this business is quite profitable. You spend one rouble and receive hundred roubles. For example, the "Russian investment in Abkhaz officials" worked full well last year: the government urged people "to love Russia" during the whole year. Abkhaz officials say that this is putting people "in the right track".

However, this time, things will go too difficult for the Abkhaz government. When the government ceded to Russia three elite dachas - those of Khrushchev, Gorbachev, and Beria - for a symbolic price, or gave the Russian Rosneft state-owned corporation the exclusive right to extract oil on the Abkhaz shelf, Bagapsh found certain arguments to justify the acts in the eyes of the public. I wonder what he is going to say if he gives Abkhaz land to Russia. In that case, he cannot have any arguments, even very weak ones.

If the territorial claims are indeed a matter of principle for the Kremlin, Sergey Bagapsh is very unlucky. If he does not cede a single inch of the land, the flow of Russian financial assistance will most probably decrease significantly. Given the fact that 70 per cent of this country's budget accounts for subsidies from Russia, this will lead to sharp destabilization of the situation in Abkhazia, which will presumably end in the replacement of the government. If Bagapsh cedes an inch of the land, this will cause even greater destabilization and will also mean early resignation. The only hope remaining is that someone was just in a joking mood in the Kremlin.

Everything depends on how the process of the demarcation of the Russian-Abkhaz border ends. Negotiations on this issue are currently proceeding in a closed mode and the sides are refraining from making any comments.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”. 

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.