Coordinated campaign

Image removed.Anton Krivenyuk, Sukhumi

The Abkhaz presidential candidates have signed a memorandum for "fair elections" and pledged to play according to the rules in order to prevent a situation like that in 2004 from taking shape again. The election struggle is already under way at a full pace. Several dozens of influential people have already pledged to support one of the candidates - Sergey Shamba. Everything was fair. There was no black PR at this meeting.

The agreement signed by the candidates envisages several important aspects, such as the inadmissibility of manipulations, rigging, and black PR and holding election campaigns within the framework of law. In particular, Aleksandr Ankvab said that the document proposed by the opposition reflected the democratic processes that were to unfold in Abkhazia.

The candidates shook each other's hands and went to their respective headquarters in order to start election campaigns. The signing of the agreement came in time, because the Russian media were already publishing sponsored articles slinging mud at Raul Khajimba and Aleksandr Ankvab. Journalists were saying, being almost hundred per cent sure, that the articles were produced by a group of political spin doctors led by Nina Odinokova, who is an associate of Economic Development Party leader Beslan Butba. Since this party supports Sergey Shamba, it follows that the black PR worked in the latter's favour, at least until last week. This is easy to understand if you read articles that have appeared in Internet publications recently. One of the articles describes Shamba as an eccentric politician, who hit an official in Moscow after the latter proposed to restrict Abkhazia's sovereignty. The image of a fighter politician is being created for Shamba, although he was known as a calm and diplomatic politician, who paid excessive attention to the domestic political situation.

This time, the public approached the sponsored articles with special attention. Time will show, whether the agreement signed is going to change anything. If slinging mud at each other continues, it will mean that at least one team does not observe the agreement.

A meeting was held in Sukhumi last week. The organizers urged the public to support Shamba. The best-known personalities among his supporters were writer Boris Gurgulia, Armenian community leader Galust Trapizonyan, and representatives of creative intelligentsia. In short, there was not a single top politician among the participants. Although there was nothing special in statements by the participants, it is nevertheless worth paying attention to them. For example, it was said that it was necessary to create an alliance that would unite the entire nation "irrespective of ethnic, religious or political views". Dopua said the union should be called "Congress of Abkhaz Nation" and Sergey Shamba should become its leader. This initiative sounds very much like Russian election ideas. They have one leader there - Vladimir Putin, who is creating a national front. Russian spin doctors do not seem to need to participate in the processes in Abkhazia, since creators from Sukhumi are already successfully copying Russian ideas.

At the same time, the problem of formation of a coalition government was raised at the meeting again. This idea has much been spoken about in Abkhazia recently. The distribution of shares is to depend on the number of votes the candidates will win in the election. This would have been an advantageous step for the elite, as it would open a path to power for various groups. However, the candidates themselves did not support the idea and it is quite clear why. A coalition government will leave the winner in the presidential election bound hand and foot.

Sergey Shamba's headquarters have already started working in full swing. Groups of supporters are moving all across Abkhazia. Preparations have started also in Raul Khajimba's team. Traditionally, there are many people and ideas there.

Aleksandr Ankvab looks strange against this background. He has given one single interview to the Russian RBK holding lately. Journalists know that Ankvab does not plan to campaign actively and may even refuse to participate in televised debates. Many of his team members do not agree with him, as they believe that it is not correct to rely only on his image and a campaign is necessary, particularly as he has remained silent for a long time now.

Observers do not rule out that the acting president is so sure of his victory that he does not deem it necessary to spend effort on an election campaign.

In addition, the attitude towards Ankvab's victory is so strange in Sukhumi, that some do not even deem it necessary to participate in the election.

"I believe the winner is already known. If nothing happens and no compromising materials are published against him, Ankvab is going to win. Many people, who did not sympathize with him previously, support him this time," an author of Radio Soma's programmes, Dmitry Bely, said.

However, people in the headquarters of his rivals are sure that everyone has an equal chance to win.

Observers hold diverging opinions. Presumably, some regions, the intelligentsia, and bureaucrats will support Sergey Shamba. The potential of the opposition is unclear. Just six months ago, three opposition candidates won 35 per cent of votes. Will Khajimba manage to unite voters around him this time or will these people prefer Ankvab? There are no answers up to now.

People in Sukhumi are so sure of Ankvab's victory that some do not even deem it necessary to participate in the election. The acting president himself is sure of his own high approval rating.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.