End of the Bagapsh era

Image removed.Sergey Bagapsh's funeral. Village Jgerda. 02/06/2011. Photo: Striner/REUTERS

Last week, Abkhazia gave the last honours to its president. Sergey Bagapsh died in Moscow on 29th of May after he underwent a complicated lung surgery. Tens of thousands of people attended the mourning ceremony on 2nd of June, including Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The second Abkhaz president was buried in his ancestral village of Jgerda in Ochamchire District.

Sergey Bagapsh's death came unexpected for Abkhazia. Bagapsh departed without leaving a national idea to Abkhaz people.

He departed in the middle of his second presidential term, at the time when political and economic instability, domestic civil confrontation, and, what is most important, the difficult years of constant preparations for war with Georgia became part of the past.

Political stability and economic growth were forecast for Bagapsh's Abkhazia.

The next election race was to start in Abkhazia in 2012 with a parliamentary election. And the presidential election was to be held much later - in 2015. Political forces in Abkhazia were using the years to prepare and become more mature.

In addition, the idea of a new national project emerged at the 15 May ecclesiastic assembly in Akhali Atoni: young Abkhaz clerics decided to achieve autocephaly of the Abkhaz church and no longer remain under the wings of the Russia Orthodox Church. This idea could have transformed into a national idea a few years later and given birth to new political leaders in this country.

In short, everyone pinned hope on the Bagapsh era, the one that brought longed-for stability and calm. However, the Bagapsh era ended unexpectedly for everyone.

Even the cell phone communications were so overloaded in Abkhazia that the service was disconnected. People were sharing the unbelievable news with each other.

"Noble", "kind", "humane", "mild" - these are epithets even Bagapsh's critics are now using when speaking about him. And they are not spurious or hypocritical. This is not even the Abkhaz rule to say only good or nothing about a deceased person.

Bagapsh, who was tall, imposing, and quite shy in relations with people, had almost no charisma, which is so important for politicians of his rank. And people are now mostly speaking about him as a personality rather than politician.

Sergey Bagapsh secured a permanent place for himself in Abkhaz history. The main achievement of his presidency was recognition by Russia. At the start of the Bagapsh era in 2005, Sukhumi was half-destroyed and impoverished. And it was a newly-built town of magic beauty that paid the last honours to Bagapsh in 2011. This is a vivid example of his merits.

What is to happen next? Vice president Aleksandr Ankvab is to lead the country during the coming three months. It will be very interesting to live in a country led by this politician.

After Vladislav Ardzinba, the incumbent vice president is the brightest figure in the political horizon of this country. Ankvab is a politician of the same generation as Ardzinba and Bagapsh. However, he is a quite different figure.

Being previously the youngest colonel in the system of the Soviet Interior Ministry, Ankvab was always tough, pedantic, and uncompromising. He and Vladislav Ardzinba came to a parting of the ways immediately after the end of the war. Since then, the first Abkhaz leader regarded Ankvab as his most dangerous rival.

The Abkhaz vice president lived as a political refugee in Moscow for quite some time. He returned to Abkhazia before the 2004 presidential election and became immediately involved in Bagapsh's election campaign. There is no doubt that broad public support for Ankvab helped Bagapsh to come to power. The two leaders managed to maintain amazingly firm relations since then. Ankvab held the post of prime minister for five years and became vice president after Bagapsh won the election last year.

It can be said for sure that Aleksandr Ankvab is the next president. The administrative resource and presumably public support are on his side. Unlike the Abkhaz church, civil society has not yet given birth to new leaders, who would be able to put up worthy resistance to the old team. Had Sergey Bagapsh lived to the end of his second fire-year term, there would indeed have been a chance to form and develop a new force. However, this time, the public is going to have to choose between vice president Aleksandr Ankvab, prime minister Sergey Shamba, and opposition leader Raul Khajimba. Only Khajimba can realistically compete with Ankvab.

Presumably, the foreign policy orientation of the new government, which will come to power in three months, will not change. Concessions to Russia have become a kind of traditional line for the government. The tough position of the public hinders the implementation of the concessions. It should be said that Russia failed to fully receive any of the "concessions" during "mild" Bagapsh's tenure as president. For example, the government halted negotiations on the handover to Russia of state dachas in Bichvinta because of pressure from the public. The problem of handing over 160 square kilometres of Abkhaz territory to Russia was also resolved fully in Abkhazia's favour. As regards religion, it was due to tough public protests that the father superior dispatched from the Moscow Patriarchate to the Akhali Atoni Monastery was evicted.

Relations with Russia have come to resemble a one-sided contest lately. The government agrees to make concessions as the sign of gratitude for recognition and guarantees of security, but public protests provide no opportunity to implement the concessions. Can it be that this is an artful Abkhaz game?

Major changes are not likely in the domestic policy either. However, the theory is still alive that Bagapsh, who was the master of compromises and acted in accordance with the situation, hindered Ankvab, who was an innate reformer, from carrying out reforms. That is quite possible, but it is nevertheless a fact that no modernization project was created after 2005, even on paper.

Ankvab, who is going to be a much stronger leader than Bagapsh, will most likely start "establishing order". During his rule, Ankvab will be unable to build a police state, but he will definitely build a police regime.

The lack of "order" and a strong ruler is obvious in Abkhazia now. However, if Ankvab becomes firmly established in the presidential chair, the formation of a new political elite will be postponed for many years. There is no doubt that Ankvab will secure a second term, which means that the generation of the politicians of the 1990s will maintain an almost permanent monopoly on power.

The next Abkhaz leader should first and foremost maintain the feeling of stability that the Abkhaz people are now loudly mourning together with Bagapsh.

Bagapsh managed to maintain the achievements of first president Ardzinba and raise the benchmark. Will the next Abkhaz leader be equally successful? No matter who he may be, the entire Abkhaz nation is sympathizing with him on this path.

It will be very interesting to live in a country led by Ankvab. He is obviously the brightest figure in the political horizon of this country.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.