The process of recognition in a deadlock

The Abkhazian government does not rule out the possibility of Bolivia and Equador adding to the list of countries supporting Abkhazia's independence in a near future.

Having returned from a trip to Latin America, Foreign Minister of Abkhazia Maksim Ghvinjilia stated that "there the mood towards a South Caucasus republic was positive".

However, Abkhazian experts think that the process has entered a deadlock and the government statements are to feed the Abkhazian people who are hungry for the recognition.

At the end of the last year the government of the republic sent an official request to the capital of Equador regarding the issue of the recognition. "We sent an official letter to President Rafael Correa where we asked him to recognize the independence of Abkhazia. Together with the letter we sent the materials about the history of our country. Equador will study the materials and soon make a statement about the issue," said the head of Abkhazia's foreign office back in December. However, today Ghvinjilia admits that the answer of Equador is nowhere to be seen.

After the change of government in Ukraine there was an expectation that the Kremlin would find a lot more common with the new president of Ukraine Victor Yanukovich than with Saakashvili's personal friend Yushchenko. However, Yanukovich has made clear that "Ukraine is against double standards" and "that universally accepted international rules must be the same for everybody".

Moscow started to lobby the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries after it recognized their sovereignty on August 26, 2008. Soon after Nicaragua joined Russia and a year later it was Venezuela's turn to recognize the independence of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"More and more countries will start recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Venezuela will give them an example to follow," Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez said back then.

However, despite big expectations in Abkhazia, the prediction of the Venezuelan leader came true only in case of one country: in December 2009, the island state of Nauru recognized the independence of Abkhazia.

By recognizing the disputed territories Moscow made a principal domestic policy decision and showed its will and muscle to the West. Later processes including the institutionalization of political, military, economic and cultural relations between Russia and the new South Caucasus republics showed Moscow's readiness to keep the stance it took in August 2008.
Abkhazian officials are well aware that big international players such as the EU, USA and China will not recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, they still look forward to another "small victory" such as another tiny exotic country's recognizing their independence.

According to Abkhazian pundits, the process of recognition largely depends on Russia. The fact that the West looks at the Kremlin leaders with doubt and does not render them geopolitical support significantly reduces the possibility of recognition of Abkhazia's independence by other countries.

It is clear that the recognition of Abkhazia's independence by several Latin American countries has worried Tbilisi. This could be seen from the effort of Tbilisi to establish diplomatic relations with these countries. The recent visit of the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to Costa Rica where together with other Latin American leaders he attended the inauguration of the new president will probably not help the recognition process.

Another painful issue for Moscow is an unclear position of Minsk, which keeps postponing the discussion of the status of the two South Caucasus republics.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author only and not to “The Liberal”.

The article has been prepared with the support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The views and opinions expressed in the publication do not necessarily reflect those of Heinrich Boell Foundation.