Prosecutor, Envoy, or Wrestler?

Image removed.Eduard Kokoyty. Photo: David Mdzinarishvili/REUTERS

A presidential election is to be held in South Ossetia in November, but the names of the politicians, who will compete for the presidential post, are still unclear.

According to the constitution, South Ossetian president Eduard Kokoyty does not have the right to stand for a third term.

Last week, the Supreme Court refused to satisfy the demand by an action group on holding a referendum in the republic. The group created under the leadership of the Defence Minister Ibragim Gasseyev and consisting mostly of representatives of the power-wielding agencies was demanding that the following question be posed at the referendum: “Do you agree with one person becoming South Ossetian president for three consecutive terms?"

The Supreme Court turned down supporters of Kokoyty's third term in office. However, the next day after the decision was announced, top officials of the State Protection Service and Defence Ministry broke into parliament while a session was under way there and demanded, this time from members of parliament, that they ensure a third term for Kokoyty.

Parliament raised such a stir that the Russian media disseminated reports on the seizure of parliament by the power-wielding agencies. Kokoyty condemned the actions of his supporters and instructed the general prosecutor to take an interest in this case.

However, experts in Tskhinvali said that this ostentatious anger and the court decision are part of one show. They said Kokoyty was playing a new game: he was pretending to be willing to depart, but his supporters were entreating him to stay.

It is a fact that no judge could single-handedly have dared to make a decision on such an important political issue in a republic, which does not have independent courts. Kokoyty himself set the tone for the court, saying a day earlier that no matter what the judge could say, he would not remain in the post for a third term.

People in South Ossetia are sure that this was yet another trick of Kokoyty, who aimed to remain in the post of president at the most or receive guarantees of immunity from Moscow at the least.

In the meantime, guarantees of immunity are currently very important for Eduard Jabeyevich Kokoyty.

Freestyle wrestling champion of the Georgian SSR Eduard Kokoyty became South Ossetian president in 2001. He was elected for a second term in 2006.

Kokoyty is known as a politician, who supports the unification of South Ossetia and North Ossetia within the Russian Federation.

At the 11 September 2008 meeting of the Valday international discussion club, Kokoyty said: "We are going to become part of the Russian Federation. We are not going to build any independent South Ossetia". He denied these words on the same evening and said: "My words were understood incorrectly. I believe that we are not going to renounce our independence. We sacrificed a lot to win independence. South Ossetia is not going to join the Russian Federation". Experts believe that he made the second statement after he received a scolding from the Kremlin.

In Tskhinvali, Kokoyty is also criticized because no one could see him in the town during the 2008 war. During the war, Kokoyty first found shelter in Java situated close to the Russian border and then even left the republic.

However, most acute criticism against Kokoyty can now be heard in connection with the non-targeted spending of the money allocated for the post-war rehabilitation of South Ossetia. Three years after the war, Tskhinvali looks like a town a day after it.

Eduard Jabeyevich is well aware who is effectively in charge of the processes in the republic. Therefore, he cannot counter the Kremlin's will. The only thing he wants is to receive guarantees of physical and financial immunity for himself and his family and it is only Moscow that can provide these guarantees.

Although there are a lot of reasons to criticize Kokoyty, opposition to him is very weak. Kokoyty's opposition are not allowed to be active in Tskhinvali, so they are active in neighbouring Vladikavkaz.

"Kokoyty is even worse than Saakashvili!" "Putin and Medvedev, protect us from Kokoyty's tyranny!" "Kokoyty is a factor of instability in Russia's south!" About 500 protesters standing with these and similar slogans in the centre of Vladikavkaz in May urged the Russian leadership to take an interest in the Kokoyty government.

The protests were organized by the South Ossetian Popular Front. This political organization consists of opposition parties that are unable to pursue their activities in South Ossetia, as the justice ministry refused to register them.

This was the first case, when the South Ossetian opposition managed to unite. The main objective of the Popular Front is to prepare for the November election and name a single candidate.

Jambolat Tedeyev, who is the manager of the Russian national freestyle wrestling team and Kokoyty's personal foe, is one of the most clear-cut leaders of the Popular Front.

Tedeyev said at the rally in Vladikavkaz that he is ready to become the opposition's candidate in the presidential election.

Given the fact that the Popular Front has no other charismatic leader, Jambolat Tedeyev is most likely going to be nominated as its candidate.

In the meantime, Kokoyty is already preparing to neutralize Tedeyev. A criminal suit has been filed over Tedeyev's quarrel with law enforcers and he has been barred from the republic for a year.

A judge of the justice court, Sergey Bitiyev, is yet another politician, who openly said that he wants to run in the presidential election.

As regards Kokoyty, if he indeed fails to remain in power for a third term, he will most likely name prosecutor general Taymuraz Khugayev as his successor. However, Khugayev will find it difficult to win popular support. South Ossetian envoy to Moscow Dmitry Medoyev is much more popular. He is also regarded as a presidential candidate.

However, naming his successor does not at all mean that the candidate is automatically going to become president. South Ossetia has the experience of holding a just election. South Ossetia became the first republic in the post-Soviet area, where incumbent president Lyudvig Chibirov lost the election in 2001.

Ruslan Lekov, a political scientist at North Ossetian State University, believes that presidential candidates will find it very difficult to gain people's votes. "People are so tired of Kokoyty's rule and empty promises that they are negatively disposed towards politicians in general. They will hardly trust any election campaign promises".

Soslan Kokoyev, the head of the South Ossetian Uasamonga.ru website, said that Kokoyty is in a complicated situation, because he has no one in his entourage, who would be supported by the South Ossetian population.

Inal Pliyev, apolitical analyst from Tskhinvali, said that the names of candidates will probably become known by July. "One thing can be said for sure: no matter who these candidates may be, they will be oriented on partnership with Russia".

The Kremlin's support will be decisive in the presidential election, but Moscow is in no hurry to disclose the name of its candidate.

It is a fact that Moscow is already tired of sustaining the insatiable leader and is searching for someone to replace him in the 2011 election.

Guarantees of immunity are currently most important for Eduard Jabeyevich Kokoyty.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.