The Rubicon of the Kokoiti opposition

The “Day of Rage” announced by the Russian opposition and meaning countrywide protest demonstrations was to become a certain Rubicon for the opposition of Kokoiti as well. The opposition planned to organize a massive demonstration in Tskhinvali and said that this day was to become the beginning of the end for Kokoiti. Before that the opposition had only been able to stage protests in Moscow and Vladikavkaz. But as the proverb goes, a barking dog never bites.

The Tskhinvali City Hall allocated an office for the opposition where the latter would have an opportunity to meet with the people hurt in the Georgia-Ossetia war. It is the people who were left with no homes after the 2008 war that the opposition rests its hopes on.

Over 600 private houses were destroyed in the republic. Last year the government pledged to rebuild half of them but as of now it has kept its promise for only about 10 percent of the houses.

The homeless people who now live in tents or are sheltered at their neighbors are a volatile mass. It has already tried to stage a brief demonstration in front of the government house but the opposition failed to capitalize on this.

Very few people showed up at the demonstration – something that was easily expected. Although the South Ossetian opposition is widely represented in virtual world (Live Journal), they have few supporters in real life. Even the opposition leaders Albert Jusoev and Aleksandr Barankevich were missing at this meeting.

The leader and major sponsor of the Kokoiti opposition is an entrepreneur from Moscow, the head of the “Stroiprogress” company Albert Jusoev. His company installed a gas pipeline in South Ossetia. Other opposition leaders include the head coach of the Russian national freestyle wrestling team Jambolat Tadeev and the hero of the August War, the former secretary of the Security Council Anatoli Barankevich.

Neither of them enjoys popularity in South Ossetia. Jusoev comes from the Kvaisa Valley and this is where his key support base is located. the majority of the local population there supports him.

They are called the “Moscow Opposition” in Tskhinvali. It consists of the people who left the republic in 1990s in search of a better life or of the former government ministers sacked by Kokoiti after his coming to power.

The South Ossetian presidential elections are officially scheduled for November 2011, however, the “Moscow Opposition” demands early elections. They think that May and June will be decisive in their efforts to dethrone Kokoiti.

“May and June will be crucial. It is the most proper period for holding street protests,” says Oleg Teziev, one of the opposition members and former prime minister, “the situation in the republic is very animated and the discontent accumulated over the years may erupt any moment.”

Pundits speculate that the above-given dates are connected with the reconstruction of the objects destroyed during the 2008. According to construction organizations, the major rehabilitation works will be finished by September 2010 and the wave of discontent will subside with it.

The distrust of the population towards the opposition is fed by the fact that the opposition does not have a political program. At least, it is not publicized officially. The only thing that the opposition says is: “Kokoiti must go!” It very much resembles the “Kokoiti Fandarast!” campaign of the so-called alternative South Ossetian government.

It is important to note that fearing political persecution and repressions South Ossetians are afraid to openly express their opposition mood.

The people who suffered war are very much afraid of the domestic chaos and want stability. South Ossetians think that domestic instability will benefit only Tbilisi. 

Of course, the political elite of the republic well understands that Georgia is a geographic neighbor of South Ossetia and you cannot change it. But so far everything Georgian is foreign and unwelcome for these people. This is particularly true for political projects. For example, the visit of Zurab Noghaideli, leader of the “Movement for Fair Georgia” in Tskhinvali was perceived extremely negatively here.

The fear and impotence of the opposition were reasons why nobody went to the streets on March 20 to express protest against the president and his government.

Only journalists gathered at the Tskhinvali Theatre Square and they too stayed for only three hours waiting in vain for something to happen.

The discontent towards Kokoiti is very big in South Ossetia. People are particularly dissatisfied with the rebuilding works, new constructions and increasing social problems.

The Republic of South Ossetia does not have the experience and practice of revolutions and this is exactly what the opposition wants to do.

The parliamentary opposition is currently represented by the Communist Party of South Ossetia. Its leader Stanislav Kochiev will surely be one of the presidential candidates in the 2011 elections of South Ossetia.

The incumbent president of the republic Eduard Kokoiti is serving his second term and according to the constitution of the republic, cannot stand in the elections again.

The current opposition is not the power that can worthily replace Kokoiti. People have to choose between the bad and the worse. Fear and uncertainty take their toll: Ossetian people opt for peace and stability as of now.

The terminology and opinions used in the article belong to the author only and not to “The Liberal”.

The article has been prepared with the support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The views and opinions expressed in the publication do not necessarily reflect those of Heinrich Boell Foundation.