Shamba - Kremlin's choice

Image removed.Vladimir Putin and Sergey Shamba. Meeting in Sukhumi. 2 June, 2011. Photo: RIA Novosti/REUTERS

Moscow will have to choose not only a new tactic, but also a fundamentally new approach regarding the presidential election in Abkhazia.

The Kremlin's attempts to interfere in its neighbors’ domestic policy have always ended in failure over the past years. However, Moscow is in no hurry to draw necessary conclusions.

The same happened in Abkhazia in 2004. The Kremlin supported Raul Khajimba in the presidential election at that time. This position almost cost Abkhazia a civil war and Moscow the loss of the loyalty of the Abkhaz.

The Kremlin imposed a citrus blockade on the disobedient Abkhaz.

Economic pressure is the main lever of Russian foreign policy. Everyone should tremble from fear.

At that time, the Abkhaz lost part of the citrus harvest, which was to help them to survive the coming winter when sold. Previously, the Belarusians got spoilt the milk banned by Moscow and Moldovans suffered from the ban on their wines. Georgians suffered from the ban on their wines and other agricultural products. And Ukraine is being blackmailed with high prices of gas.

Ideally, any problem can be resolves with such methods. However, Moscow is unable to realize that it is dangerous to constantly blackmail neighbors, because as a result, they become so frightened that they run away like it happened when the Soviet Union collapsed and those, who were most afraid, were first to depart - the Baltic countries.

If Russia continues to resort to the intimidation policy, the same may happen to Abkhazia.

Vladimir Putin arrived in Sukhumi to attend Sergey Bagapsh's funeral. After the mourning ceremony, he met both potential presidential candidates - vice president Aleksandr Ankvab and prime minister Sergey Shamba. The photographers, who covered both meetings, noticed the tension and disagreeable nature of the meeting between Putin and Ankvab was and, on the other hand, the ease and friendly environment at the meeting between prime ministers.

Of course, Sergey Shamba is more convenient for Russia. He is a much more flexible candidate, who can resort to compromises, while Ankvab has had the image of a straightforward and principled politician for a long time now. He could be seen only at construction sites lately and it is being said that the construction projects he is in charge of are proceeding much more quickly and with an optimal budget.

Moscow has very big plans regarding Abkhazia, so it does not want to take major risks. Various Russian agencies set their sights on the almost unused Black Sea coast in Abkhazia a long time ago. It is being said that the Defence Ministry has serious plans regarding the Sukhumi military sanatorium. During the ambitious project of the 2014 Sochi Olympics, which Moscow is looking forward to more impatiently than Sochi, Abkhazia may not only play the role of a buffer zone, but also receive some guests. It is necessary to build hostels and resorts in Abkhazia for this purpose. However, no one wants to build on someone else's land. To develop recreational infrastructure, Abkhazia will have to pass a special law, which will enable foreigners to buy real estate and land.

During his visit to Sukhumi, Prime Minister Putin mentioned 10 billion roubles to be allocated to further develop infrastructure in Abkhazia. The statement was meant for those who heard it.

Ten billion roubles are great money for Abkhazia. It is almost impossible for this republic to mobilize such funds independently. Of course, it has a big potential for receiving a large number of tourists and develop, but it will hardly be allowed to develop independently.

Before the start of the summer season this year, repair operations started on the pedestrian bridge that connects Abkhazia with Russia. Only a highway bridge was left for tourists and it already has kilometres of traffic jams. It is difficult to imagine what may happen in summer. Even last summer, when the border functioned in the usual mode, you had to wait a day to cross the border. Not many tourists will most probably be willing to come here. People in Abkhazia are saying sincerely that the repair of the pedestrian bridge is yet another trick of Moscow, which wants to make Abkhazia inconvenient for tourists.

Abkhaz officials understood Putin's hint about 10 billion roubles in the following manner: If you elect Shamba, you will receive the money, if not we will think. It is possible that Putin did not mean that at all, but given his reputation, this is how the prime minister's message was understood in Abkhazia. That is why many Abkhaz officials are now trying to unite around Sergey Shamba.

However, you can never be fully sure of anything in Abkhazia.

Sergey Shamba is more convenient for Russia. He is a much more flexible candidate, who can resort to compromises, while Ankvab has the image of a straightforward and principled politician. The photographers, who covered both meetings, noticed the tension and disagreeable nature of the meeting between Putin and Ankvab was and, on the other hand, the ease and friendly environment during the conversation between prime ministers.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.