Snowy Impasse

Image removed.Alla Dzhioyeva. Photo: Eduard Korliyenko/REUTERS

"No compromises! The only way out of the situation is to recognize the results of the elections. Thousands of people supported me. I am South Ossetian president," 62-year-old Alla Dzhioyeva said at a rally of her supporters as she emerged from her meeting with Russian president's envoy Sergey Vinokurov.

Dzhioyeva and her supporters have been standing in snow-covered and frosty centre of Tskhinvali for more than 10 days demanding the recognition of the election results.

When opposition candidate Alla Dzhioyeva has won the second round of the presidential elections, the South Ossetian Supreme Court annulled election results causing extreme tensions in the republic. According to the Central Election Commission, Alla Dzhioyeva has won 57% of the votes in the second round whereas the Kremlin's candidate Anatoliy Bibilov’s percentage was 40%.

In order to defuse tension, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev has sent his representative Sergey Vinokurov to South Ossetia, but in vain. "What is the sense in negotiations if one side is sticking to its position, resorting to no concessions and only levelling humiliating accusations against me? Of course, it is very distressing when Russian officials openly tell me that I cannot satisfy the requirements necessary to be the head of state, and that I am not suitable for the post, and that the election was allegedly rigged," Dzhioyeva told her supporters after her meeting with Vinokurov.

Winter started early in Tskhinvali; weather is very cold and snowy. If the sun breaks through the clouds then the place looks awful – snow turns into dirty water forming large puddles that even cars have trouble to overcome.

Around two to three thousand people gather every day in the centre of the city to support Dzhioyeva. The large barrels outside in the square are used for fire; people bring firewood to keep fires burning to enable women at least warm their hands.

"We are people, not cattle", "Russia, spare us the tyrant Kokoyty regime!" – These are banners people hold at the rally. White-yellow-red flags are flying everywhere. Mrs. Dzhioyeva also has South Ossetian flag around her neck instead of a scarf.

In her speeches Dzhioyeva urges her supporters to fight till the end.

People are demanding more radical steps, for example, breaking into a state agency or holding the inauguration earlier. The inauguration is planned for 10th of December, but no one knows what will be afterwards since the Supreme Court is not recognizing Dzhioyeva's presidency as legal.

Both, the government and the opposition are aware that the republic is on the verge of civil confrontation. Since the first day of the rally both sides have spoken about the probable provocations; the forecasts turned out to be realistic: unidentified group of people have shot a “Mukha”-type grenade at the house where republic's General Prosecutor and his family were living. The prosecutor and his family sleeping at that moment in the flat were not injured, but all the families having flats in the same building were left without windows in frosty weather. Both, Kokoyty and Dzhioyeva said that this provocation was staged against both of them.

Dzhioyeva delivered an ultimatum to Kokoyty, demanding recognition of the election results. According to the ultimatum, Kokoyty was to resign and schedule a day for inauguration; otherwise, Dzhioyeva would evade responsibility for future developments. However, the deadline of the ultimatum soon expired and Kokoyty has not even considered it. Vinokurov's arrival also failed to defuse tension. The Kremlin is currently preoccupied with its own parliamentary elections failing to realize, that its authority in South Ossetia is gradually being undermined.

Critical situation might last longer in Tskhinvali. Due to the Kremlin's inconsistent policy, the events in South Ossetia have unfolded unexpectedly for everyone: Dzhioyeva, initially loyal to Moscow, has now found herself in an impasse; Bibilov, the Kremlin's candidate, is discredited in the society and many of his supporters now participate in Dzhioyeva's rallies. Kokoyty is not even worth considering; he has been long referred to as a bandit in the republic. However, the Kremlin is the one which is in the most complicated situation – Moscow failed to ensure the victory of its candidate in the first round and now it openly goes against the will of Ossetian people similarly as it has already done in Abkhazia in 2005 and in Ukraine in 2004.

"What does the Kremlin’s such a behaviour mean? Isn’t Dzhioyeva pro-Russian?", these questions are often asked. Alla Dzhioyeva, a teacher of Russian language and literature, has often said before the elections that she is "by her passport and soul" a Russian.

Before the elections and afterwards as well, Dzhioyeva did her best to receive support from Moscow but she was rejected by the Kremlin. According to experts, the main reason for her denial was the Kremlin’s need to have not only a loyal president in South Ossetia but also a person undeniably implementing Moscow’s open or secret orders.

Kokoyty was such a person. He managed to evaporate billions of Russian aid in such a manner that no one managed to find any trace. No matter what the Kremlin may say, it is clear that Kokoyty could not have done this alone without help from his partners and friends in Moscow.

People in Tskhinvali say – although the Kremlin has a grudge against Kokoyty who has shown his excessive zeal in stealing money, it is still not so offended as to support unpredictable Dzhioyeva who might mess up everything in "making money" scenarios.

Therefore, for the officials in Moscow, who make money on the financial aids for South Ossetia, it is crucial to have a right partner in Tskhinvali.

The current president of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoyty has attended the negotiations held behind the closed doors in Government House. People in Ossetia believe that current crisis and tensions are caused by Kokoyty. "I was sure that this shameless man would not leave calmly and would certainly do some harm at the end", a man said at the rally.

Although people are quite negative about Kremlin's position, they still hope for the Kremlin to defuse the tensions in republic. "There are many Russian citizens living in the republic. The Kremlin has no right to abandon the region”, people often say in Tskhinvali.

It seems that for Kokoyty today Bibilov's victory is not as important as Dzhioyeva's defeat. Not only Tskhinvali’s ruling elite but also the Kremlin fears Dzhioyeva; the reason is Dzhioyeva's main ally and former South Ossetian Defence Minister, Anatoliy Barankevich. He is one of the most influential people in the republic, who can launch new conflicts and re-distribution of property among elites making South Ossetia even more uncontrollable.

Kokoyty never had good relations with the Kremlin's favourite - Anatoliy Bibilov - either. The political consultants working with Bibilov argue that Kokoyty’s support to Bibilov influenced him negatively. It might be that Kokyty, well aware of his unpopularity, deliberately supported Bibilov to cause problems for the Kremlin.

However, after Dzhioyeva’s victory the interests of Kokoyty and the Kremlin have coincided. But experts say it won’t last long; if the election results are annulled and the opposition dissolved, the Kremlin again will try to bring Bibilov into power while Kokoyty will presumably cause troubles again trying to support his own candidate.

Observers express fear that situation might become uncontrollable and develop into civil war. Taking into account the fact that many civilians possess weapons in the republic, the observers’ fears become more realistic. South Ossetia is a small republic and slightest confrontation may have disastrous results here.

Additionally, one of the important results of these tensions is the growing protest against Moscow and the Kremlin politics among Tskhinvali population. All these lead to long-term political instability as well as abuse of Russia’s authority.

The terminology used in the article belongs to the author and not “Liberali”.

The article is prepared with support of Heinrich Boell Foundation. The publication statements and ideas do not necessarily express the Heinrich Boell Foundation opinion.