Georgia’s Imitation Game

Georgia is Victor Orbán’s foreign policy success. While much has been written about Hungary’s illiberal regime and how Victor Orbán managed to consolidate power domestically, lesser attention has been paid to its foreign political dimension. Orbán has built an exportable model,becoming a source of inspiration and emulation for closet autocrats worldwide, especially in Europe.
His influence on the EU candidate countries of the Western Balkans such as Serbia, BiH and North Macedonia has not gone unnoticed.1 

However, one of the closest copies of Orbán’s regime has been developed in Georgia, arguably with a good dose of guidance and encouragement from Fidesz. This raises two interrelated questions: what makes the Hungarian model so attractive for the current Georgian leadership and what is Hungary gaining from supporting Georgia? It also invites the discussion of Russia’s potential gains from emerging anti-liberal partnerships and of their broader impact on the global order fragmenting under the pressures of heightened geopolitical competition.2

This study examines why and to what extent Georgia has been mimicking the Hungarian model under the leadership of the ruling Georgian Dream party and the broader implications of this phenomenon. It is also concerned with understanding the modalities of influence projection by Budapest and the main drivers behind it. What has changed in the international environment that has enabled the rise of anti-liberal authoritarianism worldwide and what broader conclusions can be drawn from the cases of Georgia and Hungary? In addressing these questions, this paper highlights the defining features of the two regimes and explores how much Georgia has copied from the Hungarian original. The comparison is made both in terms of power mechanics and ideological framing. While similarities are striking, this paper demonstrates that there are also important differences between the two, particularly when it comes to political costs and long-term strategic implications. The Georgian Dream might be mimicking Hungary but in doing so it is drifting back into the Russian orbit, leaving Moscow the prime winner of its imitation game.

Hungary, intentionally or not, serves as a useful conduit for Russia’s interests not only within the EU but also more broadly. In addition to undermining European unity by challenging the EU line on Russia and Ukraine, Hungary acts as an example of a country that can remain part of the institutional West and pursue anti-Western policies; it can be culturally part of the West with a strong European identity yet geopolitically adopt the posture of multi-alignment; it can benefit from European programs and funding and at the same time, reject any criticism in the name of sovereignty and pluralism. In other words, when Hungary adopts Russian-style legislation such as the one on transparency of foreign influence or LGBTQ propaganda, it makes it easier for other governments with autocratic tendencies yet pro-European populations to emulate and justify. For the regime in Tbilisi, Hungary has served both as an example and an alibi for its growing ideological and geopolitical alignment with Russia.

This study has not delved into the exact mechanisms of how Fidesz, Hungary’s ruling party, is helping the Georgian Dream (GD) and neither has it uncovered any behind-the-scenes deals. This is not an exercise in investigative journalism, but rather an analysis of open-source materials. A combination of secondary and primary sources was used as well as open-ended interviews conducted on the condition of anonymity. The primary sources included official statements, speeches, and relevant policy documents. The author benefitted from access to the BBC monitoring service, which provided translations of Hungarian language news and analysis. The paper was also informed by the author’s experience as Head of the Georgian Mission to the EU in the period of 2013-2021.

The main focus of the study is Georgia. It closely examines Hungary’s influence on Georgia’s turn to authoritarian politics. However, it would be a mistake to ignore the domestic roots of this phenomenon linked to the traditions of one-party dominance, zero-sum political culture, extreme majoritarianism, unicameral parliament and the weakness of political parties and institutions that make the state susceptible to capture. This paper begins by discussing the domestic factors, structural as well as cultural, that led to the erosion of Georgian democracy and made it vulnerable to malign influences both domestic and foreign. The second part of the paper examines the Hungarian model and the power mechanics behind Fidesz’s success. It then draws comparisons to the Georgian case, highlighting similarities and differences. The paper concludes with reflections
on the broader implications of the global rise of hybrid authoritarianism.