COP29: Armenia's voice in global climate negotiations

Short but important background

Within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the place of holding the Conference of Parties (COP) is determined on a regional rotational basis between the 5 regional groups of the United Nations. In the case of COP29, the host country was chosen from the Eastern European group. The issue of hosting COP29 remained uncertain for a long time. The agreement of all countries was necessary, because the decisions in the UNFCC are made by consensus.

According to Aram Gabrielyan1 the former national coordinator of the UN COP, due to the Ukrainian conflict and the strained relations between the Russian Federation and the EU, only Armenia and Azerbaijan remained candidates for hosting COP29 from the Eastern European group. Russia had objections regarding the candidacies of EU member states. However, in the COP28 framework held in Dubai in December 2023, it was decided to hold the next conference in Azerbaijan. The decision was adopted with the unanimous consent of about 200 countries, including Russia and Armenia. At the initial stage, Armenia also applied to host COP29, but later refused, which became one of the main reasons for Azerbaijan being the only candidate.

As the MFA in Armenia informed2, "Armenia's withdrawal of the COP29 admission application was due to the agreement on mutual confidence building measures reached by Armenia and Azerbaijan in December last year, which entailed the return of 32 Armenian prisoners of war by Azerbaijan." On December 13, 32 Armenian prisoners were already in Armenia.

What does the agreement mean for the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations? South Caucasus regional expert Olesya Vartanyan believes3 that when Armenia expressed support for Azerbaijan's bid, it was evaluated as a beneficial diplomatic move by Yerevan. On the one hand, it strengthened the agreement on the release of servicemen, and on the other hand, it served as a unique measure of confidence-building, which was also a certain signal of willingness to cooperate.

COP29 will be held on November 11-22, 2024 in Baku. It will be the first climate conference of this scale in the region. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev appreciated this decision as a "sign of respect" from the whole world, stressing that this is a great honor for their country.

The holding of COP29 in Azerbaijan has caused great commotion and discussions all over the world. The first reason is that Azerbaijan is a major polluter, and the second is human rights violations, including restrictions on civil liberties and suppression of independent activism.

Oil-dependent host of COP29

The trend of holding COPs in oil-producing countries is worrying for climate experts. Holding COP27 (Egypt), COP28 (UAE), COP29 (Azerbaijan) and next COP30 (Brazil) in countries heavily dependent on hydrocarbon resources export may weaken the urgency of climate action and affect the effectiveness of the conferences.

Azerbaijan is a major gas and oil producer. Gas and oil account for 92.5% of the country's export earnings. Azerbaijan is among the countries most dependent on energy exports. It is dependent economically and politically on oil and gas income.

In 2023, the World Bank published the national report on the climate and development of Azerbaijan. This 75-page document examines in detail the impact of climate change on the country, the economy's dependence on oil and gas, corruption issues, and proposes strategies to increase climate resilience. Despite international commitments and 2030/2050 target indicators (35% and 40% reduction), the country's current policy is insufficient to achieve them. According to the assessment of the World Bank, the situation is complicated due to the existing corruption problems in the country. Meanwhile, Global Witness's 2024 study, based on satellite data, revealed that Azerbaijan has not reported an increase in methane emissions in the last 6 years and has not submitted mandatory reports to the UNFCCC.

The question that many people have these days is whether Azerbaijan, as the host country of COP 29, can effectively lead global efforts against climate change. COP29 can serve as a 'greenwashing' platform where Azerbaijan will present itself as a climate leader by continuing to expand its fossil fuel production.

Azerbaijan's human rights issues in the background of COP29

Organizing COP29 in Azerbaijan received even sharper criticisms in connection with the state of human rights in the country. A number of international organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, are concerned that freedom of speech, assembly and press are being violated in Azerbaijan. Number of civil society organizations, initiatives and members spoke up about the need for COP29 to take place in a free and safe environment. It is known that many journalists, politicians and public figures have somehow appeared in the "black lists" of Azerbaijan and now it is a big question how they will participate in COP29. 

According to Gassia Apkarian4, California Attorneys for Criminal Justice Jurist and co-founder of Center for Truth and Justice (CFTJ, an American-Armenian non-profit established in November 2020 in response to the Nagorno-Karabakh war) 

"The decision to hold COP29 in Azerbaijan contradicts the mission of COP29. The connection between COP29 and human rights is profound, as climate change affects fundamental human rights. These include the rights to life, health, food, water and shelter." However, “in September 2023, Azerbaijan not only blocked the transport of food and medicine and cut off gas and electricity but also launched a military attack, forcibly deporting 120,000 Armenians, effectively ethnically cleansing the region. Furthermore, Azerbaijan arrested Nagorno-Karabakh's de facto leadership, who remain in pretrial detention. Additionally, Azerbaijan refused to comply with the International Court of Justice's interim decisions regarding the starvation of Armenians and continues to target activists and opposition politicians”.

"There is nothing around Azerbaijan that will support the main mission of COP29”, adds Apkarian. “Moreover, Azerbaijan's policies and record on human rights, justice and inclusion directly contradict the goal of COP29." Gassia Apkarian considers that the holding of COP29 in Azerbaijan provides an opportunity to reveal the truth about the host country. First, the conference will highlight the state of Azerbaijan's human rights, justice system, and policies that run counter to the principles espoused by the conference itself. “This will be an opportunity to inform world leaders that Azerbaijan is trying to clean up its sad history of suppression of public debate and inclusion, which includes restrictions on freedom of speech, assembly and the press.” Abgaryan also notes that Azerbaijan's attitude towards activists and oppositionists will overshadow the event, questioning the legitimacy of the conference and revealing the oppressive political reality of the country.

"Azerbaijan will try to present its best image during COP29 to impress the participants, but I fear that the country will then double down on its terrible human rights violations. It will seek to silence and punish anyone who has tried to raise their voice before and during COP29. Azerbaijan does not tolerate opposition or criticism. It is possible that the situation will worsen in Azerbaijan. It is already at the bottom of the freedom list, and I fear that after COP29 the situation could get even worse,” he says.

It should also be noted that 53 Armenian civil society organizations made a joint statement to the participants of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), demanding to pay attention to Azerbaijan's human rights violations and political actions. They expressed concern that holding COP29 in Baku could legitimize Azerbaijan's aggressive policies, citing ethnic cleansing, war crimes and ongoing military threats against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Climate agenda of Armenia 2021-2030

Nonetheless, COP29 is a unique opportunity for Armenia? to speak out on the international stage about the disproportionate impact of climate change. Even though the World Bank has not yet published the latest national report on climate and development of Armenia, there are a number of documents developed and adopted for Armenia: Nationally Determined Actions (NDC) for 2021-2030, the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation and the list of measures for 2021-2025.

Armenia, as a developing country, member of the UNFCCC, is committed to implementing the landmark Paris Agreement and gradually expand climate change mitigation actions, taking into account national characteristics. In contrast to developed countries, which are obliged to undertake absolute emission reduction targets in all sectors of the economy.

Armenia, being a country with a share of 0.02% of global greenhouse gas emissions, nevertheless bears the consequences of climate change to a disproportionate extent, especially due to its mountainous location and vulnerable ecosystems.

At the same time, Armenia's Climate Risk Profile predicts alarming developments for Armenia. The impact of climate change on the country is already noticeable, and the situation may become even more complicated in the coming decades. During the last 90 years, the average temperature in Armenia increased by 1.23 degrees. By the end of the century, the temperature may increase by another 4.7 degrees, which will lead to dramatic changes in the country's ecosystems. Agriculture, which is one of the pillars of Armenia's economy, is particularly vulnerable. An increase in the number of prolonged hot days, water scarcity and weather instability threaten the future of agriculture. Considering that approximately 30 percent of workers in Armenia are employed in the agriculture sector, these changes can also lead to serious social problems.

The increasing frequency of natural disasters is also a concern. According to 2019 data, Armenia ranks 107th out of 191 countries in terms of disaster risk index. Droughts, floods and mudslides are becoming more frequent and intense. This endangers not only agriculture but also infrastructure and people's lives. The urban population is not left out either. The heat island effect, where temperatures in cities are higher than in the surrounding areas, can lead to serious health problems, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

But the picture is not entirely bleak. Armenia, with the support of international organisations and donors, has already taken a number of important steps. National adaptation strategies have been developed and programs to improve water resources management are being implemented. New, climate change-resistant technologies are being introduced in the agriculture sector. Strengthening climate risk monitoring systems, implementing drought-resistant agricultural practices and effective water resource management should become a priority.

The set goals show the serious intentions of the country in the fight against climate change. The process of fulfilling international obligations implies the involvement of external financial and technical support. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the needs of vulnerable groups of the population and ensure social justice in the process of green transition.

Armenia's efforts are seen as important, but so far incomplete, given the various challenges. The country is taking steps towards meeting its international obligations, but there are current issues that require increasing financial and organizational capacity. For success, it will be necessary to invest additional efforts, especially in the direction of securing funding, public awareness and increasing the efficiency of overall management.

At the same time, the Armenian MFA, talking about climate impacts, told us: "Especially the obligations of developed countries and hydrocarbon producing countries must be fulfilled in an unstoppable way, so that countries like ours do not have to pay for the economic development of the latter at the expense of their own sustainable development, facing emerging environmental challenges."

Is COP29 a summit of peace?

COP29 summit to be held in Baku creates a difficult, but at the same time important situation for Armenia. Holding the summit in neighboring Azerbaijan requires a delicate diplomatic approach and careful strategy. In the current geopolitical conditions, the international climate summit can become an important platform for Armenia to raise the issues of regional sustainable development and environmental security.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, answering our question about Armenia's participation, referred to the press conference of the Armenian Prime Minister on August 31.The Prime Minister indicated that a decision had not yet been made, emphasizing that the evolving situation would influence the final choice.

Olesya Vardanyan analyzes the situation, continuing.

"If the Prime Minister of Armenia goes, in my opinion, it will be such a huge event from a political point of view and in the international arena, that maybe it will even cover all other issues not only related to the climate, but even human rights, which are now very actively raised. It seems to me that it is no coincidence that the Armenian side keeps this issue open in order to understand what they can get from it."

Olesya Vardanyan notes that the format of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan has changed. “Now it seems that countries are conducting direct negotiations and discussing issues with mediators in parallel.” Issues of "corridor" and demarcation have become central themes. She believes that the COP29 climate summit is connected to this process. According to Ms. Vardanyan, if Armenia and Azerbaijan could come to an agreement or make a joint statement, the November summit would take on a completely different mood, perhaps praising President Aliyev for showing political will to reach a peace agreement with Armenia.

"The summit will not completely change the attitude towards the conflict in both Baku and Yerevan. We can confidently say that this is a good opportunity, which has already been used to some extent," clarifies the expert.

The global challenges of climate change require international cooperation, regardless of regional political challenges. In this context, Armenia should continue to actively participate in international climate processes while maintaining its national interests and security priorities. Armenia's participation in COP29 may have a number of important goals, including strengthening bilateral and multilateral dialogue with the international community, establishing new partnerships in the field of combating climate change, internationalizing regional environmental issues, identifying new opportunities for attracting green technologies and investments. Aram Gabrielyan suggests to use COP29 platform not only for environmental issues, but also for raising the issues of Artsakh Armenians. He notes that even if the government does not take the initiative, the civil society can appeal to the EU. Within the framework of COP29, there is an official negotiation platform of non-state entities, where urban communities, rural and other associations are represented. There is also a platform of indigenous peoples. In his opinion, it is possible to raise the issues of preservation of cultural heritage and the return of exiled Artsakh Armenians on this platform. According to the expert's assessment, if problems are raised on this platform, they will be heard.

Conclusion

Thus, COP29 in Baku is not only a platform for the fight against climate change, but also a part of a complex geopolitical game. The choice of Azerbaijan as a host country is controversial, but at the same time it reflects the multi-layered reality of the modern world. On the other hand, issues of regional stability and energy security force the international community to consider many factors.

The summit can become either a platform for “greenwashing” or the beginning of real changes. The result will depend not only on Azerbaijan, but also on the active involvement and demandingness of the international community.

The potential outcomes of the summit may have a significant impact on regional cooperation in the fields of climate change and environmental security, which requires a clear strategy and constant consideration to protect Armenia's interests and achieve sustainable development goals.

This is also a diplomatic challenge for Armenia, given the regional tensions, but at the same time, it can be a new opportunity for dialogue. COP29 will show how ready the world is to balance global challenges, regional interests, and universal values.

The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the author and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the Heinrich Boell Stiftung Tbilisi Office – South Caucasus Region

This article was prepared in October 2024. Any events, developments, or updates that occurred after this date are not reflected in this article.

The article was machine-translated from Armenian and corrected for readability.